EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data. It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more th...
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019
The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data. It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more than the retail sales. There is an important shit in expectations after the analysts noted three rate cuts for the year.
The meeting scheduled next week will determine the policymakers course of action. Meanwhile, the markets are hoping for a signal on their next move, even earlier than the July meeting. Thus, the rally of the EUR/USD was due to the shift. If this is confirmed, then there is a chance for an upward movement.
There is a high probability that the markets will look for a chance to cell the dollar after the initial reaction in the results of the retail sales prior to the Fed meeting.
The previous bear flag pattern in yesterday’s report is still significant with the lower target at 1.1260 as the euro major pair heads below with low momentum. Nonetheless, it is still not too far from the target.
Yet, traders should monitor the level of 1.1280 in the US trading hours. The market tries to push it higher during the early European session but the rally was not sufficient to be sustained.
The pair stays range-bound on the 4-hour chart. Traders should also get ready to have some volatility in the US session, although it will not be much given that its Friday.
It is also important to note that a made a breakthrough to the target level of 1.1260 moves to a bearish confluence with a resistance level that is important last week. Hence, there is a possibility to have a retest to defend this area. A break higher than 1.1280 can open chances for an uptrend while the upcoming Fed meeting next week keep the bids for the pair at bay.
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are...
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019
The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are likely to focus on the US retail report scheduled on Friday.
The final CPI data was shown to have increased by 0.2%, meeting the expectations. The unemployment data from Italy also resulted as anticipated in the first quarter of the year. Yet, these data did not have a big impact on the exchange rates.
For this week, the 200-MA (weekly) presents to be a difficulty. Moreover, the pair is trading importantly around the indicator for a year.
The pair has tested the August level last year, which was seen to move above it for a few months until it broke down in March. As of recently, the sellers were successful in the rally, which can make trading quite difficult.
The pattern gives a bearish sentiment on the hourly chart. Soon after the inflation data yesterday, the euro major pair broke lower and the pair reached 1.1260. The support level of 1.1280 also gives psychological significance. The 100-MA is also shown to be converging to the horizontal level.
On the 4-hour chart, the price level of 1.1280 reflects significance given the ascending channel from the May low at the same area.
Given the decline, the downturn of the price is expected to move momentarily with the psychological levels at 1.1280 and 1.1260. Given the confluence in the support region, there is a possibility not to reach the next target despite the presence of a flag pattern. Traders may have difficulty in breaking the resistance from the 200-MA.
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency. T...
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019
Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency.
The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies.
Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data.
On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time.
Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt.
Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading.
Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed.
On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation.
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 7, 2019The euro major pair move forward on Thursday amid the slight dovish less the expectation ECB meeting. It was seen to be trading in a tight range before tha Non-farm...
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 7, 2019
The euro major pair move forward on Thursday amid the slight dovish less the expectation ECB meeting. It was seen to be trading in a tight range before tha Non-farm payroll data to be released later this day.
The ECB data mentioned easing during yesterday’s meeting but not sufficient for the market, which resulted in a rally in the euro major pair.
To be more precise, Draghi adjusted lower the expected rate increase and mentioned TLTRO III.
Fed chair Powell mentioned the tendency for a subdued inflation in the early days of the week. A few drops in inflation would have an impact on the monetary policy if this happens in a more steady pace.
The ECB meeting shook the market expectations on central bank. For now, inflation in the euro is expected or at least until the next meeting.
The EUR/USD pair encounters some strong resistance as it directs its attention to the level of 1.1260. Also, the 100-MA should be given attention as their is confluence with the decline of the Fibonacci just above it.
The euro major pair was sustained higher at the horizontal level of 1.1260 in the early European trading hours. Moreover, the NFP did not show a lot volatility recently. I anticipate for the pair to try and defend the level of 1.1294. A support level to 1.1213 is open on a drop.
The ECB meetings stands to keep the euro firm in the short-term. Hence, it also open opportunities in cross currency pairs. A break higher than 1.1318 would confirm the upward movement.
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good ra...
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019
The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good rally. Overall, the direction of the trend will be relative to the ECB which will meet later this day.
The current trend indicates a downward movement more than expected. Meanwhile, different central banks eased the monetary policy or at least mentioned that they are open to doing so. Draghi will probably adjust the inflation forecast downward to an extent. In case that he chose to ease the policy amid the declining economic numbers, then the common currency will highly likely decline amid a high pressure.
Looking at the average movement, there is not a high chance for the EUR/USD pair to return above yesterday’s high. This would show as much as 86 pip rally since the opening.
Traders are suggested to look at the level of 1.1260, the level of which traders are likely to be aware of in the current situation. This has been on the lows twice last month and possibly be the limit at the present time. Although, it may not be that relevant after looking at the present levels.
As mentioned previously, there is also a significant resistance higher than the said level, especially considering the 100-MA and 38.2% Fibonacci from the high to low of this year. Although, it is less likely to retest the Fibonacci. Thus, I would focus my attention on the level of 1.1273, considerably that yesterday showed a strong reversal pattern.
There is also some support found around 1.1185 in case of decline due to the ECB on the 4-hour chart. This area will likely be maintained as the 100-and 200- MA are converged at the said price unless the ECB chief will have a new trigger to spike this.
As for the hourly chart, the price resides around 1.1185 at the 200-MA. There is some upward resistance at 1.1260 as a considered level. Yet, I would not clearly put a stake on a surge of increase beyond it.
In general, if the meeting turns are usual as expected, the pair will likely rally. It is suggested to look into the upper resistance and short yesterday’s high.